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Credit Impulse Report September 2017

Global Credit Impulse

 

 

 

 

Overview:

 

  • Based on our in-house indicator, contraction in Global Credit Impulse is now at its highest level since the GFC. The post-crisis peak has been reached in Q2-Q4 2016 and, since then, a sharp deceleration has taken place due to negative evolution in the USA, China and India which has started around Q3 2016. These three countries are of crucial importance in the evolution of Credit Impulse since they weight 39% of our global indicator.

 

  • Considering that Credit Impulse leads by 9 months, it means that we should expect worse data from this autumn. However, it will be necessary to have a close look at the upcoming 19th Party Congress in China that will start on October 18th since it could result in the announcement of important stimulus measures in order to limit economic slowdown.

 

  • Of the six European countries we are monitoring (Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK) Credit Impulse is still expanding in five of them, with the exception of Italy where contraction has taken place since late 2016. Those data largely reflect the cyclical lag between the European economy and that of the United States where recovery has started earlier.

 

  • In Japan, signs of Credit Impulse’s improvement are vanishing again. Our indicator has been in contraction for the past six quarters.

Sample of countries:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Methodology:

  • Our in-house Credit Impulse index is based on 18 countries that represent 69.4% of global GDP share (adjusted for purchasing-power-parity). In order to avoid too many adjustments, a quarterly frequency is used.

 

  • The Global Credit Impulse Indicator is GDP weighted. It is built using GDP in current prices from IMF WEO as they have forecasts and all are expressed in USD.

 

  • A slight change in methodology has been introduced since June’s report concerning India’s Credit Impulse. For practical reason, we use OECD GDP data rather than Maddison Historical GDP data.

 

  • The next update is scheduled on September 17th with the release of new BIS data for Germany.

 

 

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Christopher Dembik

Christopher Dembik est Responsable de la recherche macroéconomique de Saxo Bank.  Avec une double formation française et polonaise,[...]